Nber business cycle dating committee
The committee places less emphasis on the industrial production and real sales series, which mainly cover the manufacturing and goods-producing sectors of the economy.The committee also looks at estimates of monthly real GDP prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers.The committee concluded that some of the depressed level of economic activity in September 2001 was the result of the exceptional events of September 11, and thus should not be considered in identifying the trough.From October to November, industrial production and sales fell sharply, employment fell moderately, personal income rose very slightly, and monthly real GDP rose moderately.Two other indicators the committee focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well below their pre-recession peaks.Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all.
The NBER's practice has been that if economic activity is roughly flat at the end of a recession or expansion, the turning point is placed at the end of the flat period.The committee determined, however, that the fact that the broadest, most comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the economy would be a separate recession.Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the evidence provided by the behavior of various indicators of economic activity.All the major indicators of economic activity were generally flat or declining through September 2001.
Real GDP then grew at a substantial rate from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2001 and has continued growing since then.
CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.